Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Modelling the potential spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) (red imported fire ant) in Australia

Quantifying the potential spread and density of an invading organism enables decision-makers to determine the most appropriate response to incursions. We present two linked models that estimate the spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (red imported fire ant) in Australia based on limited data gathered after its discovery in Brisbane in 2001. A stochastic cellular automaton determines spread within a location (100 km by 100 km) and this is coupled with a model that simulates human-mediated movement of S. invicta to new locations. In the absence of any control measures, the models predict that S. invicta could cover 763 000–4 066 000 km2 by the year 2035 and be found at 200 separate locations around Australia by 2017–2027, depending on the rate of spread. These estimated rates of expansion (assuming no control efforts were in place) are higher than those experienced in the USA in the 1940s during the early invasion phases in that country. Active control efforts and quarantine controls in the USA (including a concerted eradication attempt in the 1960s) may have slowed spread. Further, milder winters, the presence of the polygynous social form, increased trade and human mobility in Australia in 2000s compared with the USA in 1940s could contribute to faster range expansion.

Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

Modelling predicts positive and negative interactions between three Australian tropical tree species in monoculture and binary mixture

Computer modelling promises to be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The `spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/-50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations.

Ocean dispersal modelling for propagules of pond apple (Annona glabra L.)

Pond apple invades riparian and coastal environments with water acting as the main vector for dispersal. As seeds float and can reach the ocean, a seed tracking model driven by near surface ocean currents was used to develop maps of potential seed dispersal. Seeds were ‘released’ in the model from sites near the mouths of major North Queensland rivers. Most seeds reach land within three months of release, settling predominately on windward-facing locations. During calm and monsoonal conditions, seeds were generally swept in a southerly direction, however movement turns northward during south easterly trade winds. Seeds released in February from the Johnstone River were capable of being moved anywhere from 100 km north to 150 km south depending on prevailing conditions. Although wind driven currents are the primary mechanism influencing seed dispersal, tidal currents, the East Australian Current, and other factors such as coastline orientation, release location and time also play an important role in determining dispersal patterns. In extreme events such as tropical cyclone Justin in 1997, north east coast rivers could potentially transport seed over 1300 km to the Torres Strait, Papua New Guinea and beyond.

Surveillance protocols for management of invasive plants: modelling Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) in Australia

Aim: To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context-specific plant invasion. Location: Australia. Methods: We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life-forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Results: General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek-and-destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions: Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

The host range and biology of Cometaster pyrula; a biocontrol agent for Acacia nilotica subsp. indica in Australia

Prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica subsp. indica (Benth.) Brenan, a major weed of the Mitchell Grass Downs of northern Queensland, Australia, has been the target of biological control projects since the 1980s. The leaf-feeding caterpillar Cometaster pyrula (Hopffer) was collected from Acacia nilotica subsp. kraussiana (Benth.) Brenan during surveys in South Africa to find suitable biological control agents, recognised as a potential agent, and shipped into a quarantine facility in Australia. Cometaster pyrula has a life cycle of approximately 2 months during which time the larvae feed voraciously and reach 6 cm in length. Female moths oviposit a mean of 339 eggs. When presented with cut foliage of 77 plant species, unfed neonates survived for 7 days on only Acacia nilotica subsp. indica and Acacia nilotica subsp. kraussiana. When unfed neonates were placed on potted plants of 14 plant species, all larvae except those on Acacia nilotica subsp. indica and Acacia nilotica subsp. kraussiana died within 10 days of placement. Cometaster pyrula was considered to be highly host specific and safe to release in Australia. Permission to release C. pyrula in Australia was obtained and the insect was first released in north Queensland in October 2004. The ecoclimatic model CLIMEX indicated that coastal Queensland was climatically suitable for this insect but that inland areas were only marginally suitable.

Characterisation of wood properties and transverse anatomy for vacuum drying modelling of commercially important Australian hardwood species.

Characterisation and investigation of a number of key wood properties, critical for further modelling work, has been achieved. The key results were: • Morphological characterisation, in terms of fibre cell wall thickness and porosity, was completed. A clear difference in fibre porosity, size, wall thickness and orientation was evident between species. Results were consistent with published data for other species. • Viscoelastic properties of wood were shown to differ greatly between species and in the radial and tangential directions, largely due to anatomical and chemical variations. Consistent with published data, the radial direction shows higher stiffness, internal friction and glass transition temperature than the tangential directions. The loss of stiffness over the measured temperature range was greater in the tangential direction than the radial direction. Due to time dependant molecular relaxation, the storage modulus and glass transition temperature decreased with decreasing test frequency, approaching an asymptotic limit. Thus the viscoelastic properties measured at lower frequencies are more representative of static material. • Dynamic interactions between relative humidity, moisture content and shrinkage of four Australian hardwood timbers can be accurately monitored on micro-samples using a specialised experimental device developed by AgroParisTech – ENGREF. The device generated shrinkage data that varied between species but were consistent (repeatable) within a species. Collapse shrinkage was clearly evident with this method for Eucalyptus obliqua, but not with other species, consistent with industrial seasoning experience. To characterise the wood-water relations of this species, free of collapse, thinner sample sections (in the R-T plane) should be used.

Species within Mycosphaerellaceae and Teratosphaeriaceae from eucalypts in eastern Australia

Twenty eight species within Mycosphaerellaceae and Teratosphaeriaceae (includes Mycosphaerella, Teratosphaeria, Pseudocercospora and Sonderhenia) are reported from Eucalyptus and Corymbia in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia, based on field surveys and examination of herbarium specimens and published reports. Teratosphaeria cryptica was the most commonly recorded species, with the widest host range and distribution, followed by Mycosphaerella marksii. Six new species are described: T. keanei, T. coolabuniensis, T. crispata, M. medusae, M. nootherensis and T. praelongispora. New or interesting records for known species are reported, including new records for Australia (T. pluritubularis and T. verrucosiafricana) and new records for Queensland (T. excentrica, T. multiseptata, T. nubilosa, T. suberosa and Ps. pseudoeucalyptorum).

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Economic modelling of grazing systems in the Fitzroy and Burdekin catchments

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the largest reef system in the world; it covers an area of approximately 2,225,000 km² in the northern Queensland continental shelf. There are approximately 750 reefs that exist within 40 km of the Queensland coast. Recent research has identified that poor water quality is having negative impacts on the GBR (Haynes et al. 2007). The Fitzroy Basin covers 143,000 km² and is the largest catchment draining into the GBR as well as being one of the largest catchments in Australia (Karfs et al. 2009). The Burdekin Catchment is the second largest catchment entering into the GBR and covers 133,432 km².The prime determinant for the changes in water quality entering into the GBR have been attributed to grazing, with beef production the largest single land use industry comprising 90% of the land area (Karfs et al. 2009). Extensive beef production contributes over $1 billion dollars to the national economy annually and employs over 9000 people, many in rural communities (Gordon 2007). ‘Economic modelling of grazing systems in the Fitzroy and Burdekin catchments’ was a joint project with the Fitzroy Basin Association and the Queensland Department of Employment Economic Development and Innovation. The project was formed under the federally funded Caring For Our Country and the Reef Rescue programs. The project objectives were as follows; * Quantifying the costs of over-utilising available pasture and the resulting sediment leaving a representative farm for four of the major land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments and identifying economically optimal pasture utilisation rates * Estimating the cost of reducing pasture utilisation rates below the determined optimal * Using this information, guide the selection of appropriate tools to achieve reduced utilisation rates e.g. extension process versus incentive payments or a combination of both * Model the biophysical and economic impacts of altering grazing systems to restore land condition e.g. from C condition to B condition for four land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments.

Spatial and diurnal pattern of protein foraging by Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) on a host plant

Background: Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, is the major pest fruit fly in Australia. Protein bait sprays, where insecticides are mixed with spot applications of a protein based food lure, are one of the sustainable pre-harvest fruit fly management strategies used in Australia. Although protein bait sprays do manage fruit fly infestation in the field, there is little science underpinning this technique and so improving its efficacy is difficult. Lacking information includes where and when to apply protein bait in order to best target foraging B. tryoni. As part of new work in this area, we investigated the effect of height of protein on tree and host plant fruiting status on the spatial and temporal protein foraging patterns of B. tryoni. MEthod: The work was conducted in the field using nectarine and guava plants and wild B. tryoni at Redland Bay, Queensland, Australia. Spot sprays of protein bait were applied to the foliage of randomly selected fruiting and non-fruiting trees. Each tree received protein bait spot sprays on the lower and higher foliage at 0530hrs. The number, sex and species of flies that fed on each protein spot were recorded hourly from 0600hrs through to 1800hrs.Results: For nectarines, there was a significant difference in the number of B. tryoni feeding on protein bait placed at different locations within the tree (ANOVA, F = 8.898, p = 0.001). More flies fed on protein placed on higher foliage relative to lower, irrespective of the fruiting status of the nectarine trees. A significant difference was also observed in the diurnal protein feeding pattern of B. tryoni (ANOVA, F = 2.164, p = 0.024), with more flies feeding at 1600hrs. Results for guava are still being collected and will be presented at the meeting.Conclusions: We conclude that B. tryoni effectively forages for protein at heights higher than 1.3m from ground, indicating greater efficacy of protein bait when applied at foliage higher in the canopy. Bactrocera tryoni actively forages for protein throughout the day, with a highest feeding peak at 1600hrs. The lack of significant difference in the spatial protein foraging pattern between fruiting and non-fruiting nectarine trees may be a real result, or may have resulted from the fruiting tree being very close (within 1 – 2 metres) of the non-fruiting tree. This hypothesis is being tested in the guava trial.